An gun can take a maximum of four shots at an enemy plane moving away from it.
An gun can take a maximum of four shots at an enemy plane moving away from it. The probability of hitting the plane at the 1st, 2nd, third & 4th shots are 1.4, 1.3, 1.2 & 1.1 respectively. What is the probability that the plane is hit when all the four shots are fired?
Answer/Solution
0.6976
Steps/Work
Required probability:
=(0.4×0.7×0.8×0.9)+(0.6×0.3×0.8×0.9)+(0.6×0.7×0.2×0.9)+(0.6×0.7×0.8×0.1)+(0.4×0.3×0.8×0.9)+(0.4×0.7×0.2×0.9)+(0.4×0.7×0.8×0.1)+(0.6×0.3×0.2×0.9)+(0.6×0.3×0.8×0.1)+(0.6×0.7×0.2×0.1)+(0.4×0.3×0.2×0.9)+(0.6×0.3×0.2×0.1)+(0.4×0.3×0.8×0.1)+(0.4×0.7×0.2×0.1)+(0.4×0.3×0.2×0.1)=(0.4×0.7×0.8×0.9)+(0.6×0.3×0.8×0.9)+(0.6×0.7×0.2×0.9)+(0.6×0.7×0.8×0.1)+(0.4×0.3×0.8×0.9)+(0.4×0.7×0.2×0.9)+(0.4×0.7×0.8×0.1)+(0.6×0.3×0.2×0.9)+(0.6×0.3×0.8×0.1)+(0.6×0.7×0.2×0.1)+(0.4×0.3×0.2×0.9)+(0.6×0.3×0.2×0.1)+(0.4×0.3×0.8×0.1)+(0.4×0.7×0.2×0.1)+(0.4×0.3×0.2×0.1)
=0.2016+0.1296+0.756+0.336+0.864+0.504+0.224+0.324+0.144+0.0084+0.0216+0.0036+0.0096+0.0056+0.002=0.2016+0.1296+0.756+0.336+0.864+0.504+0.224+0.324+0.144+0.0084+0.0216+0.0036+0.0096+0.0056+0.002
=0.6976=0.6976
Edit: Thank you Vaibhav for providing an alternative method.
Alternate Method:
probability that the plane is hit when all the four shots are fired,
P=1−probability of not hitting the targetP=1−probability of not hitting the target
=1−(0.6×0.7×0.8×0.9)=1−(0.6×0.7×0.8×0.9)
=1−0.3024=1−0.3024
=0.6976
A
=(0.4×0.7×0.8×0.9)+(0.6×0.3×0.8×0.9)+(0.6×0.7×0.2×0.9)+(0.6×0.7×0.8×0.1)+(0.4×0.3×0.8×0.9)+(0.4×0.7×0.2×0.9)+(0.4×0.7×0.8×0.1)+(0.6×0.3×0.2×0.9)+(0.6×0.3×0.8×0.1)+(0.6×0.7×0.2×0.1)+(0.4×0.3×0.2×0.9)+(0.6×0.3×0.2×0.1)+(0.4×0.3×0.8×0.1)+(0.4×0.7×0.2×0.1)+(0.4×0.3×0.2×0.1)=(0.4×0.7×0.8×0.9)+(0.6×0.3×0.8×0.9)+(0.6×0.7×0.2×0.9)+(0.6×0.7×0.8×0.1)+(0.4×0.3×0.8×0.9)+(0.4×0.7×0.2×0.9)+(0.4×0.7×0.8×0.1)+(0.6×0.3×0.2×0.9)+(0.6×0.3×0.8×0.1)+(0.6×0.7×0.2×0.1)+(0.4×0.3×0.2×0.9)+(0.6×0.3×0.2×0.1)+(0.4×0.3×0.8×0.1)+(0.4×0.7×0.2×0.1)+(0.4×0.3×0.2×0.1)
=0.2016+0.1296+0.756+0.336+0.864+0.504+0.224+0.324+0.144+0.0084+0.0216+0.0036+0.0096+0.0056+0.002=0.2016+0.1296+0.756+0.336+0.864+0.504+0.224+0.324+0.144+0.0084+0.0216+0.0036+0.0096+0.0056+0.002
=0.6976=0.6976
Edit: Thank you Vaibhav for providing an alternative method.
Alternate Method:
probability that the plane is hit when all the four shots are fired,
P=1−probability of not hitting the targetP=1−probability of not hitting the target
=1−(0.6×0.7×0.8×0.9)=1−(0.6×0.7×0.8×0.9)
=1−0.3024=1−0.3024
=0.6976
A